Fair market value assumes a market that is accessible, informed, and orderly. Surplus often exists in markets that are fragmented, time-sensitive, and condition-dependent.
The question is not "What is it worth?" The question is "What outcome can we achieve given the constraints?"
Constraints are not noise. They define the outcome. Market access, time pressure, and condition uncertainty are not exceptions—they are the rule.
Outcome-based pricing accounts for constraints: market access, time pressure, and condition uncertainty.
Anchoring on fair market value creates predictable, value-destroying behaviors.
Instead of asking "What is it worth?", ask "What outcome can we achieve?" This shifts focus from theoretical pricing to practical decision-making.
"In surplus, the enterprise is not pricing the asset. It is pricing the likelihood of a successful outcome given the constraints."
A surplus-capable enterprise does not discard fair market value. It simply refuses to treat it as the primary decision metric. It introduces outcome-based decision-making.
Decisions account for market access, time, and condition constraints.
Optimizes for achievable outcomes, not theoretical prices.
Models outcome distributions, not point estimates.
Realized outcomes update future decision ranges.