Why Depreciation Schedules Fail in Surplus Environments

Depreciation is an accounting method, not a value method. In surplus environments, time does not reduce value smoothly—it changes the probability of outcomes.

The Hidden Variable

Depreciation works when assets behave predictably. Surplus is not that world.

Surplus begins the moment an asset loses its operating context. The asset may still function, but the economic question changes from "how much life is left?" to "what is the decision latency?"

Option Value Decay

Option value decays faster than the asset itself. It decays when condition becomes uncertain, documentation separates from equipment, or holding costs become political.

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InstallUseDecision PointDisposal
Plant ClosureSupport EndedMarket Glut

Surplus value tracks decision latency. Value drops in steps based on events: closures, compliance changes, or loss of documentation.

Why "Net Book Value" Becomes a Trap

Anchoring on book value creates two predictable, value-destroying behaviors in your organization.

The Over-Holding Trap

Teams delay disposition because selling "below book" feels like admitting failure. They wait for the number to fall, confusing accounting relief with economic improvement. Meanwhile, the asset rots.

The Under-Investing Trap

Teams avoid refurbishment, testing, or logistics spend because the asset "is almost fully depreciated anyway." They treat book value as a ceiling on rational effort, missing high-ROI recovery opportunities.
Governance Required

A Depreciation Schedule Cannot Price Uncertainty

Buyers do not pay for what an asset might be. They pay for what it can be proven to be. Internal redeployment fails when receiving teams cannot trust the asset identity or condition.

"In surplus, the enterprise is not valuing the asset. It is valuing the likelihood of a successful outcome."

Capital Allocation Distortion

  • New purchases feel governable (warranties, lead times).
  • Surplus lacks governance unless specifically designed.
  • Result: The enterprise buys new while carrying old.
  • This is not growth. It is duplication.

What Good Looks Like

A surplus-capable enterprise does not discard depreciation. It simply refuses to treat it as a value model. It introduces a parallel decision model for assets after use.

Portfolio-Based

Model is portfolio-based, not anecdotal.

Risk Segmentation

Segments assets by risk and materiality.

Time-Bound Standards

Defines strict time-to-decision and time-to-exit metrics.

Feedback Loops

Connects realized outcomes back into future decision ranges.